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Journal Article
JA0656-16
Article TitleIndonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)
AuthorAritta Suwarno, Meine van Noordwijk, Hans-Peter Weikard and Desi Suyamto
Year2016
Journal TitleMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
InstitutionSpringer Netherlands
Pages1-19
Call NumberJA0656-16
KeywordsAgent-based model, Central Kalimantan, Climate mitigation, Decision-making, Carbon emissions . Households . Land-use change . Private companies
Abstract:
The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally DeterminedContributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A forest moratorium policy thatprotects forest and peatland is a significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness isunclear in the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to assess thedynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model, Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services(LUCES), and used it to explore the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on theland-use decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two districts inCentral Kalimantan show that the current implementation of the forest moratorium policy isnot effective in reducing forest conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companiescontinue to invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the moratorium does notaffect community decision-making. A policy that combines a forest moratorium with liveli-hood support and increases farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increasethe local communities’benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry areas that areprofitable and competitive are more likely to be conserved and reduce potential carbonemission by about 36 %. The results for the two districts, with different pressures on localresources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such fine-tuning and help the Indonesiangovernment achieve its INDC goals as part of a wider sustainable development policy.
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