.

 

Home    About    Component & activities    Training & student research    Highlights    Publication    Links    Contact us
 
 
Component 3. Preparedness for long term opportunities
 

3.01. Economic assessment and developing prediction models for major land use options.

3.02. Ecological simulation and long term impact and environmental assessment of major tree based systems
3.03. Support government and local institutional planning and implementing land use alternative that have both economical and environmental benefits
3.04. Ex-ante impact assessment of infrastructure recovery; coastal protection forests with economic value (including special access for products from disaster affected areas)
3.05. Strengthening local institutions to undertake land use assessment, planning and implementation in rehabilitation of disaster affected coastal zone areas
 

.
 
 
» Activity 3.01
Economic assessment and developing prediction models for major land use options
 
Methodology
Output from 1.02 will be a major input (statistical, spatial and remote sensing data). Integrated assessment team for economic and ecological impacts of land use options. Adaptation of available prediction tools (CBA, PAM etc) to compare different crops and management for optimum economic benefits to the farmers.
 
Expected Outputs
Cost-benefit analysis of major landuse systems (economic tools for assessment) including profitability (return to land and return to labor), employment and impact of the existing policies.
TOP

.
 
» Activity 3.02
Ecological simulation and long term impact and environmental assessment of major tree based systems
 
Methodology

  1. Decision support systems that synthesize current knowledge on tree performance (environmental, economical) under various management regimes. Appropriate scenarios will be identified from 1.02 and 1.03.

  2. Calculate tree performance from available empirical/historical data (measurement from survived trees after Tsunami or from available studies before Tsunami) relative to ‘reference’ resulted by activity 1.0.8. Identify ‘growth retarding’ or risk factors based on four biophysical indicators: landscape position (associated with activity 1.0.8), soil type, soil texture and soil chemistry (associated with activity led by ISRI).

  3. Adoption of possible choices of land use systems at landscape scales with additional consideration on coastal livelihood:

 

  • Concept improvement of landscape dynamics model (FALLOW Model) with regards to additional consideration on coastal livelihoods choices

  • Compiling database required for parameterization of landscape dynamics model (the FALLOW Model) from relevant activities

  • FALLOW Model parameterization/ calibration to local conditions

  • FALLOW Model validation at ‘sensibility’ level, since reference data to represent ‘real performance’ of the location will not be available.
 
Expected Outputs

  1. Adapted Fallow model, scenarios and prediction models, based on output from 1.04. Simple DSS tools (both economic and ecological parameters inclusive) for tree crop selection and management, using output from 1.05, 1.06

  2. Database on potential tree performance (growth) of all major tree species, corrected to biophysical retardation factors. Thesis on tree-site matching analysis with regards to biophysical growth determinants

  3. Improved landscape dynamics model of FALLOW to be ready as DSS tools. Compiled data for the FALLOW Model parameterization, with regards to biophysical/socio-economical modules. Analyzed data, readily used for FALLOW Model parameterization. Validated FALLOW Model at ‘sensibility’ level, with regards to adoption of possible choices of land use systems and its consequences on biophysical and/or economical performance.
TOP

.
 
» Activity 3.03
 
Support government and local institutional planning and implementing land use alternative that have both economical and environmental benefits.
 
Methodology
  • Workshops and negotiation between local communities and decision makers for developing economically beneficial and environmentally beneficial rehabilitation programs.
  • LRPI and ICRAF will initiate a participatory tree crop planting schemes that have proven successful elsewhere in Indonesia.
 
Expected Outputs
  • Workshop and joint decisions for appropriate rehabilitation programs using trees farmers want.
  • Pilot scheme (one in each sub-district) through support to Dishutbun for planning and implementing participatory rehabilitation of major tree crops (rubber and/or cacao)
TOP

.
 
» Activity 3.04
Ex-ante impact assessment of infrastructure recovery; coastal protection forests with economic value (including special access for products from disaster affected areas).
 
Methodology
  1. Integrated spatial bio-economic modeling tool, calibrated for local conditions will enable scenario testing and choosing between competing alternatives. Consultation with local communities will be built into the process.
  2. Analyze effects of infrastructure quality on prices (farm gate relative to FOB) of major commodities
  3. Compile possible scenarios for prospective trajectories for scenario-based simulations
  4. Scenario-based simulations on the dynamics of landscape with regards to the adoption of possible choices of land use systems and their ecological and/or economical consequences under various policies, socio-economical and biophysical conditions using the FALLOW model.
 
Expected Outputs
  1. Spatial and bio-economic models that can assess scenarios under various contexts and farmer expectations
  2. Lookup curve on infrastructure quality vs prices of major commodities
  3. Set of scenarios used for prospective simulations
  4. Summary on prospective ecological and economical long-term performance (30 years) of the landscape/ communities, indicated by both simple ecological (e.g. carbon stocks) and economic indicators
TOP

.
 
» Activity 3.05
Strengthening local institutions to undertake land use assessment, planning and implementation in rehabilitation of disaster affected coastal zone areas.
 
Methodology

  • Partnership with locally active community based organisations and NGOs will be developed from the beginning and encourage them to join the current ‘Action’ and gain experience and valuable lessons. Training of local communities and institutions and universities for participatory monitoring and implementation of rehabilitation of affected areas will be actively organised.

  • A simple modeling tool  will be selected for training and use by local stakeholders.
 
Expected Outputs
Applicable method/s for landuse assessment and spatial planning available at Meulaboh; all key stakeholders in planning receive orientation and training on necessary approach.
TOP

.