| Journal Article |
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| Article Title | “Vulnerability hotspots”: Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought | | Author | Evan D.G. Fraser, Elisabeth Simelton, Mette Termansen, Simon N. Gosling and Andrew South | | Year | 2012 | | Journal Title | Agricultural and Forest Meteorology | | Institution | Elsevier B.V. | | Pages | 1-11 | | Call Number | JA0448-12 | | Keywords | Adaptive capacity index, Drought index, Climate change vulnerability, Food security, Food
Agriculture, Soil moisture |
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| Abstract: |
| The purpose of this paper is to identify which of the world’s cereal producing regions are likely to become
vulnerable to climate change over the 21st century by identifying those regions that will be (1) exposed to
climatic stress and (2) have a limited capacity to adapt. First, we use a global hydrological model to identify
regions likely to be exposed to drought, defined here as a location where the available soil moisture is
projected to decline by the 2050s and 2080s relative to the mean soil moisture observed between 1990
and 2005. Second, we use agricultural, meteorological and socio-economic data to develop models of
adaptive capacity and run these models to show where adaptive capacity is likely to decline by the 2050s
and 2080s relative to the baseline period of 1990–2005. Third, we contrast the hydrological and adaptive
capacity model outputs to identify “vulnerability hotspots” for wheat and maize. Here, a vulnerability
hotspot is defined as a region that the models project as likely to experience both a decline in adaptive
capacity and in available soil moisture. Results from the hydrological model project significant drying in
many parts of the world overt the 21st century. Results from the adaptive capacity models show that
regions with the lowest overall adaptive capacity for wheat include much of western Russia, northern
India, southeastern South America, and southeastern Africa. In terms of maize, regions with the lowest
adaptive capacity include the northeastern USA, southeastern South America, southeastern Africa, and
central/northern India. When taken together, this study identifies five wheat and three maize growing
regions likely to be both exposed to worse droughts and a reduced capacity to adapt. For wheat, these
are: southeastern USA, southeastern South America, the northeastern Mediterranean, and parts of central
Asia. For maize, our analysis suggests that vulnerability hotspots are: southeastern South America, parts
of southern Africa, and the northeastern Mediterranean. |
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