Rising temperatures and new rainfall patterns are limiting the areas where arabica coffee can be grown, according to a new study published by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

The implications are increased prices for coffee and impacts on the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers who grow the coffee variety, reports an article in The Guardian.

Arabica, accounts for 70 per cent of the global coffee market but it is particularly sensitive to temperature increases, which reduce its growth, flowering and fruiting and make it more susceptible to coffee pests.

The study, which models the global suitability of arabica cultivation in 2050, found that Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia and Colombia (which together produce 65 per cent of the global market share of Arabica) will experience severe losses unless steps are taken to change the genetics of the crops as well as the manner and areas in which it is grown. In Brazil, current Arabica production is predicted to drop by 25 per cent by 2050.

In some places, coffee production could be located to higher, cooler areas but the study warns this could come at the expense of forests or conservation areas or affect the livelihoods of indigenous people, and compete with other crops.

The scientists say new varieties and new growing practices are urgently needed, such as growing coffee under shade to decrease temperatures.

Dr Peter Läderach, CCAFS climate change specialist and co-author of the report, says failure to find new and better ways to grow arabica would have serious consequences for both humans and the environment.

Coffee grown in agroforestry systems “brings a lot of benefits like biodiversity and soil and water conservation, and erosion control,” says Läderach

Read the full story: Coffee catastrophe beckons as climate change threatens arabica plant

Download the full study:

Ovalle-Rivera O, Läderach P, Bunn C, Obersteiner M, Schroth G (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4).